Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller is Taking a Break (Maybe You Should, Too?)

“The next 4-5 years are going to be tailored to the skill set that worked for me in the 80s and 90s. Which was all sorts of macro chaos."

This past week I watched Stanley Druckenmiller

The following are my notes of the conversation. I also posted a thread with highlights

• Yes, he’s still bearish

• Streaks: taking the temperature

• “Sizing is 70-80% of the equation”

• The importance of taking a break

• Passion is his work ethic

• We’re operating without a precedent: remain open-minded

• Be aware of your biases

• Why macro traders tend to be pessimists

• How traders get into trouble

• Tracking technical analysts

• The game of trading has sped up: 'Invest first, investigate later'

• Advice to young traders

• Changing his mind on possibility of a crisis?

• Shorting housing in ‘06

• Inflation: gold or bitcoin?

• Long energy: ‘not a classic Duquesne play’ (anymore)

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Yes, he’s still bearish

Let’s get this out of the way. Yes, he’s still bearish.

“My best guess is that we're six months into a bear market that has some room to run. For those tactically trading it's possible the first leg of that has ended. But I think it's highly, highly probable that the bear market has a ways to run.”

Why? History suggests to him that the Fed will not be able to engineer a soft landing...