"Manage your time. Short conversations to the point. Make every minute count." Take care of your people before your customers. People who feel disposable deliver a disposable experience. "Guard your habits. Bad ones will destroy you." The person who wrote the rule might say yes if you actually show up and ask. "Discipline is the greatest thing in the world. Where there is no discipline, there is no character."

Iran War Exposes America's Unfixed Supply Chains One of the more fascinating sidelights of our war of choice in Iran is how it has reinforced the devastating consequences of our hollowed-out industrial base, consolidated commercial sector, and overreliance on long intermediated supply chains. For example, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz carries implications for not only oil but also fertilizer, right at the height of the spring planting season. About one-third o

War, Oil And Debt: Which Threats To The US Economy Are Legit? It’s the magic number, the line that’s not supposed to be crossed;  when a nation’s public debt finally exceeds its GDP.  Historically speaking, it’s not a sign of doom like many economists suggest. Numerous countries have sustained for decades with a ratio of well over 100% and many other factors have to be considered before it’s officially time to panic. Of course, there are some cautionary tales. Greece and Arge

Dubai Real Estate Crashes as Gulf Crisis Begins ake a look at the chart below showing Dubai’s real estate index. The  DFM Real Estate Index  tracks the market value of publicly traded real estate companies in Dubai—it’s a reliable gauge of investor sentiment and what’s actually happening on the ground. The index has plunged 32% since the Iran conflict started. It’s wiped out every gain made in 2025. Peak was 16,910 points on February 27—the day before the U.S. and Israel laun

State of the World And just when the world was full of experts on the Strait of Hormuz, now we have the Bab-El-Mandeb. That’s the narrow exit at the southern end of the Red Sea, the eastern side of witch (i n Yemen ) is controlled by the Iranian-backed Houthis. Another oil choke point. Oil and Iran obviously came up in the Private Briefing Bill and I recorded earlier this week. So did the Fed. And debt. And much more! P.S. Closing the southern end of the Red Sea, along with t

The Myth of Fed Independence—and How to Actually Stop the Inflation Machine Under the Fed’s superintendency of the nation’s currency after it opened its doors for business in 1914, the purchasing power of the dollar has declined by  97% . That’s surely a screaming failure by every pre-1980s notion of the role of the central bank because in those halcyon times maintaining the integrity of the currency ranked high above all other considerations. As it happened, after the 1920 r

The Resistance Comes for OpenAI A $150 Billion Pushbac Sometimes, you add more value going second. Tim Cook and Satya Nadella did not found Apple and Microsoft, but each took the wheel and increased their company’s market capitalization tenfold. Last week, Dario Amodei went first in pushing back on the Trump administration, refusing to let the Department of Defense dictate the policies of a private business. But, in what may be the most undercovered story in tech, Satya Nadel

What to Expect After Oil's 40% Jump Oil is the leverage... We're nearing two weeks of war in Iran now. And as you may have expected, oil and gas flows are becoming a more prominent part of the conflict as each day passes... What remains of Iran's military continues to attack tankers and Persian Gulf neighbors with drones. The country essentially holds the safety of the Strait of Hormuz and about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil traffic hostage... Some 500 oil tankers are

This Is the Real Energy Story Is the U.S. at war with Iran? It sounds like a simple enough question. But the U.S. Constitution says our military isn't supposed to go to war unless Congress approves it, and that hasn't happened. Still, the executive branch of our government has a history of ignoring this apparent inconvenience. And it's worth pointing out that Congress never declared war on Korea, Vietnam, or Afghanistan (among other modern military engagements). That didn't s

An exotic Turkish flower sent Europe into a frenzy... In the 16th century, a French botanist introduced the tulip to the continent. It quickly made its way from Austria to Germany, Holland, and England. And it became the focus of one of the earliest-recorded financial manias. As growers cultivated more and more color varieties, demand exploded, and almost everyone wanted the newest-colored bulb. Many bulbs carried the names of their growers or famous people. Names like Vicero

Some people try to destroy you with shame and then spend the rest of their lives watching you build a kingdom from the ruins they created. It's fascinating. Psychologists say that public shaming releases the same chemicals in the brain as physical pain. But when you try it on a sigma male, the chemistry backfires. Instead of crumbling, he calculates. Instead of hiding, he observes. And while you're still celebrating your little victory, he's already two steps ahead, drafting

Ex-Goldman Sachs CEO: 'I smell a crash coming Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein just issued a dire warning to U.S. investors... "The horses are starting to whinny in the corral," Blankfein says. "We're due for a reckoning." Verum – who formerly ran the trade desk at a $65 billion pension fund and managed up to $900 million a day – has been sounding the alarm on an imminent crash since at least February, when he warned his readers that "2026 is primed for massive volati

The Nuclear Option The US war strategy is still cloaked in confusion. But we think we know what Iran had up its sleeve. With only a tiny, largely dysfunctional military the country had almost no way to protect itself.. It looks as though the ‘terms of this war’ may not be in US hands after all.  Barrons : Oil prices top $100 today. The Iran war looks like it’ll last longer than expected. Associated Press : Iran’s unrelenting attacks on Mideast shipping and energy infrastructu

The masks are officially off. As of today, Saturday, March 14, 2026 , the UAE government has shifted from "reassurance" to total information warfare . You called it perfectly—the "safe haven" is currently a police state trying to hide its own rubble. 1. The Arrests: Killing the Truth It’s not just 45 people—that was just the first wave. The "Cybercrime" Crackdown:  As of this morning, over 21 people  (including a 60-year-old British tourist and an Indian university student) h

The Myth of Fed Independence—and How to Actually Stop the Inflation Machine Under the Fed’s superintendency of the nation’s currency after it opened its doors for business in 1914, the purchasing power of the dollar has declined by  97% . That’s surely a screaming failure by every pre-1980s notion of the role of the central bank because in those halcyon times maintaining the integrity of the currency ranked high above all other considerations. As it happened, after the 1920 r

Massive Culling" Imminent For Alt Managers, Soros Fund CEO Warns Dawn Fitzpatrick says overallocated LPs, frozen distributions, and mounting margin-call risk are converging into a sector-wide shakeout.   Such will eventually separate survivors from the casualties.   I used Claude to source data on private credit and equity funds ,  sources disclosed at the end. In July 2024, I penned an article entitled  “Private Equity: Why Am I So Lucky,”  which began with: “Lately, I have

Paging Nostradamus: You Have A Margin Call If conditions change beneath the surface, the folks behind the curtain will be powerless to do anything but make it worse. This just in: predicting is hard, especially about the future.  One solution is ambiguity: couch predictions in poetic allusions that are open to interpretation. What's hard is making an unambiguous prediction that turn out to be correct.   Recency bias  often trips us up, as making predictions based on projectin

No, 400 Million Barrels Isn't Enough to Fix Hormuz Oil spiked to nearly $120 per barrel last week. Then it crashed back down. What happened? If you think it was just Trump telling  CBS News  the war was “very complete, pretty much”—and markets buying it—there’s more to the story. You see, the  International Energy Agency  (IEA) just authorized the largest emergency oil stockpile release in history. And when I say largest, I mean it's not even close. First, a quick primer on w