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Another year is ending, which means it’s time to look back in order to better look forward.
For 2025, I see no other realistic option or scenario ahead other than a weaker dollar and rising gold.
This is not “selling my book,” it’s just a common-sense approach to the realities of history, debt markets and the signals of my often-repeated mantra that can’t be repeated enough, namely: “The bond market is the thing.”
Below, we see why.
To some, of course, the bond market is boring, but let’s keep it simple, because if you understand government debt, you see things with an almost eerie clarity.
So, let’s start with a brief, debt-based look back.
Looking Back
In my year-end report for 2023, we saw the coming events of 2024 fairly clearly.