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Commodities Will Be The Biggest Trade Of The Next Five Years - Michael Hartnett's Bold Call

Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett declares commodities will dominate the second half of the 2020s as globalization gives way to nationalism, fiscal excess drives inflation hedging, and nations scramble for chips, rare earths, minerals, and oil to win the AI and energy wars. Canada's vast, stable-jurisdiction resources position its mining sector as a prime beneficiary.

I. Introduction

In his latest Flow Show note (April 11, 2026), Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett declares that commodities will be the biggest trade of the second half of the 2020s. He points to a historic shift from globalization to nationalism, fiscal excess, and a geopolitical scramble to control key resources as the driving forces.

Hartnett’s core thesis is clear: after years of dominance by stocks and bonds, commodities are set to become the primary beneficiary of inflation hedging, risk hedging, and the global race to secure chips, rare earths, minerals, and oil to win the AI and energy wars.

Canada is exceptionally well-positioned with vast reserves of copper, uranium, nickel, cobalt, gold, and other critical minerals in stable Tier-1 jurisdictions. This article breaks down Hartnett’s commodities thesis, the specific metals and sectors that stand to benefit most, and actionable implications for Canadian mining investors in 2026 and beyond.

II. Hartnett’s Big Commodities Thesis – The Macro Setup for the Next Five Years

Hartnett’s bold call is rooted in several major secular shifts:

• Globalization → nationalism

• Inequality → affordability focus

• Fed independence → deference to political needs

• Open borders → border control

• Services → manufacturing

• US$ debasement and global fiscal excess

He sees commodities as a dual hedge — both an inflation hedge and a geopolitical risk hedge — in a world where control over resources determines winners in the AI and energy transition.

A key geopolitical angle from Hartnett:

“Who owns the chips, rare earths, minerals, oil, wins the AI war.”

This directly calls for resource nationalism that favours secure Western Hemisphere supply. Commodities, in Hartnett’s view, will outperform as nations prioritize energy security, supply-chain resilience, and hard assets over traditional financial assets.

III. Which Commodities and Metals Stand to Benefit Most

Copper

Hartnett sees copper as a core winner. It is essential for AI data centers, electrification, and grid build-out. Structural supply deficits and surging demand from the energy transition position copper for multi-year strength.

Uranium and energy metals

Energy security becomes paramount as oil and gas underinvestment meets rising demand. Uranium stands out as a beneficiary of the push for reliable baseload power.

Gold and silver

These remain classic inflation and currency debasement hedges. Gold, in particular, serves as a long-term savings asset in an era of monetary experimentation and fiscal excess.

Nickel, cobalt, and other battery metals

Driven by EV and energy storage demand, though with more cyclical risk than copper or uranium.

Iron ore and aluminum

Shorter-term support from inventory rebuilds, but longer-term pressure from Chinese demand weakness is expected.

Hartnett’s “Four C Trades” (Curve steepeners, Commodities, China, Consumer) keep commodities central even as he highlights other themes.

IV. Why Canada Is Uniquely Positioned in Hartnett’s Commodity Supercycle

Canada’s resource advantage is unmatched among Western nations: world-class deposits of copper, uranium, nickel, cobalt, gold, and rare earths in stable, mining-friendly jurisdictions.

Policy tailwinds include the Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund (CMIF), devolution in Nunavut expected in 2027, and alignment with USMCA and U.S. friend-shoring goals. These factors make Canadian projects increasingly attractive to Western capital seeking secure, non-Chinese supply.

In 2026, as the world scrambles for reliable resources amid geopolitical fragmentation, Canadian assets in Tier-1 districts gain a clear premium over higher-risk regions in Africa, South America, or Asia.

V. Specific Implications for Global and Canadian Mining Stocks

Gold sector

Safe-haven and monetary demand support the sector. Low-AISC producers and royalty/streaming companies (Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, Osisko Gold Royalties, Newmont, Barrick) act as Hartnett-style capital preservation vehicles with operational leverage.

Copper sector

Structural winner in Hartnett’s thesis. Global leaders like Freeport-McMoRan, BHP, Rio Tinto, and Canadian names with projects in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec stand to benefit from AI, data-center, and grid demand. Western-aligned Canadian copper projects gain a security premium.

Uranium sector

Energy-security premium strengthens the case. Major players like Cameco (Canada) and global names benefit directly from Hartnett’s underinvestment thesis in hydrocarbons and the push for reliable baseload power.

Overall sector view

Quality, low-cost, politically secure assets in stable jurisdictions (Canada, Australia, U.S.) will outperform high-risk, high-cost operations in less stable regions. The current environment rewards companies with strong balance sheets, disciplined capital allocation, and clear paths to production.

VI. Investor Positioning Framework for the Next Five Years

Core allocation

Overweight copper, uranium, and gold in stable jurisdictions for both growth and defensive characteristics.

Speculative sleeve

High-conviction juniors with discovery catalysts in Tier-1 districts for leveraged upside.

Risk management

Focus on balance-sheet strength, low debt, and strong management teams. Avoid over-leveraged or geopolitically exposed names.

Timing

Use any near-term volatility from Iran ceasefire headlines or short-term risk-on moves to accumulate quality names at better valuations.

VII. Conclusion

Michael Hartnett’s call that commodities will be the biggest trade of the next five years aligns perfectly with the structural shifts underway in global supply chains, energy security, and monetary policy.

For mining investors worldwide — and particularly those focused on Canadian assets — this creates a multi-year opportunity to capitalize on secure, Western-aligned supply in a world that increasingly values resource nationalism.

The coming commodity cycle will reward disciplined investors who focus on quality assets in copper, uranium, and gold — exactly the sectors Hartnett’s thesis highlights as the future winners.