Unfinished Business

The DOGE campaign made no more headway than the trade war. The problem was spending…not how the money was spent. And spending levels are determined by Congress.

Many times in the past, Donald Trump was reportedly ‘finished.’ His many gaffes, faux pas and foibles would have destroyed a lesser figure.

But he survived…and grew stronger than ever.

And now…once again, the press is running hopeful obituaries. The Washington Post leads with a “It might be falling apart for Trump” headline:

Multiple polls this week showed Trump hitting new lows. His approval rating has been double-digits underwater in surveys from the Pew Research Center (minus-19), Economist-YouGov (-13), Reuters-Ipsos (-11) and now Fox News (-11).Trump was already more unpopular at this point in his presidency than any modern president not named Trump; he’s now flirting with falling below where he was at this point in his first term.Perhaps more troublingly for Trump, most of his major policies are even more unpopular than he is.

On Tuesday, the Trade War, the signature policy of the Trump II administration, came to what appeared to be a whimpering end.

First, Trump’s Secretary of the Treasury admitted to the whole world that his proposed Liberation Day tariff proposals were “unsustainable.” The trade war was sending Wall Street into a tizzy; the Wall Street Journal ran damning editorials; Republicans were threatening to revolt. Trump had no choice. He had to flip flop.

Since then, the Dow has recovered more than 2,000 points. But with no further risk from the Trade War, the foreigners have little incentive to make dramatic changes to their export policies. The Independent:

Trump keeps claiming he’s working on a deal with China. Beijing says that it is all in his mind

“There are no negotiations going on with the Trump Administration regarding lowering tariffs between the two countries,” adds the South China Morning Post.

Whatever the state of play, the effect will probably enrich the insiders close to the Trump administration and otherwise leave trade much as it was. Mediaite:

Fox Reporter Says the Trump White House Is Giving Wall Street Executives Inside Info on Tariff Negotiations

Then, on Wednesday, as expected, another key Trump program — the Department of Government Efficiency — bit the dust. Politico:

DOGE loses its biggest advocate as Musk exits WashingtonElon Musk’s claim that his job in Washington is “mostly done” may calm Tesla shareholders — but his departure could sap the Department of Government Efficiency of its disruptive energy even as it continues to make major cuts to the federal workforce.In an effort to reassure rattled Tesla shareholders after a bruising first-quarter earnings call, Musk told investors this week that his around-the-clock involvement in DOGE will soon be scaled back to just a day or two per week.

The DOGE campaign made no more headway than the trade war. The problem was spending…not how the money was spent. And spending levels are determined by Congress, not by an independent, quasi-governmental agency led by a billionaire. Is there waste and inefficiency that should be cut?

Of course, there is. But every penny goes into someone’s pocket, though not always the pocket Congress intended for it to go into. And that pocket almost surely has political connections. Trying to cut the ‘waste’ without the support of Congress was always a fool’s errand.

Musk initially said he would cut $2 trillion from the budget — thereby eliminating the deficit. Then, he said the $2 trillion figure was ‘aspirational;’ it would be more like $1 trillion in savings. Finally, the DOGE website claims $160 billion in savings…most of which is probably illusory.

Poor Elon, he didn’t seem to understand what a nasty business he had gotten himself into. And now his cars are scratched. His showrooms are picketed. Tesla’s profits are down 71% and his own fortune diminished almost as much as DOGE claimed to save.

For most of us, even a loss of $1 billion would be troubling. Elon has lost $148 billion since January 17th.

The Trump collapse, however, is not limited to Trade Policy and DOGE. A former insider at the Pentagon told Politico that the military had become largely dysfunctional:

The last month has been a full-blown meltdown at the Pentagon — and it’s becoming a real problem for the administration.

Returning to the budget, the aforementioned Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, claimed that the Trump administration was trying to wean the economy off government spending so that it would return to the private sector.

Bad news for him!

During the first six months of the current fiscal year, deficits already total $1.3 trillion — a figure worse than any since FY 2021, a Covid year with DJT fingerprints all over it.

No reciprocal tariffs. No Liberation Day. No DOGE dividend checks. Chaos in the military. And we're still going broke. A normal mortal would probably resign and retire. But is The Donald really finished? Probably not. His real mission remains unaccomplished.