Out of Whack

Out of Whack

The Supreme Leader may well imagine that he is Making America Great Again. And maybe he is, but he might also be a dupe of History...whose actual role is very different.

Oliver Cromwell at the Battle of Dunbar, during the Third English Civil War, Source: Getty Images

“All of the people that died through the roadside bombs. Died and are right now walking around with no legs.”

--Donald Trump

Let us take another look at the hypothesis at the center of our big picture outlook: the big men of history may have a conscious plan and purpose...but many also have an historical role that is much more important.

It came to mind as we read this headline from Harici:

Economists Richard Wolff and Michael Hudson considered the US military intervention in Iran as a desperate geopolitical move that tried to slow the fall of the empire.

Like us, they look at US policy decisions in the light of a failing empire. No longer flexible and dynamic, a geriatric empire seeks ways to protect itself...to hold on to what it’s got...and to keep its status and its wealth as long as possible. And with such a large arsenal at hand, it begins to ask: is there any annoyance that can’t be eliminated by whacking someone?

Don’t like a foreign nation’s emigration policies? Whack it with tariffs.

Don’t like the way they deal with the drug cartels? Whack it with sanctions.

Don’t like the way they refuse to surrender their national sovereignty? Whack them with bombs and missiles.

But these efforts do not ‘slow the fall of empire.’ They speed it up. All of this whacking makes enemies and costs money. Fortune:

‘This cannot be sustainable’: The US borrowed $50 billion a week for the past five months, the CBO says

And by shifting the economy to whacking...rather than producing things people want and need...real, useful output goes down. And then, the empire economy is soon ‘out of whack’ altogether, as inflation, debt and monetary crises undermine real economic activity and weaken the empire’s ability to defend itself.

The Supreme Leader may well imagine that he is Making America Great Again. And maybe he is, but he might also be a dupe of History...whose actual role is very different.

Oliver Cromwell, in 17th century England, was a competent cavalry officer. He led the Protestant roundheads in their battles with the Royalist cavaliers. And it was he who signed the order by which Charles I was beheaded.

Cromwell thought he was doing God’s work. His conscious goal may have been to rid England of Royalists. But he was seduced by power and began to act like royalty himself. Others began to address him as “Your Highness.” And as Lord Protector, he was paid a salary that even Trump might envy — about $20 million in today’s terms.

The English were appalled by his cruelty...and shaken by the chaos and disorder that he caused. He inadvertently laid the foundation for the return of King Charles II and the establishment of England’s constitutional monarchy.

In 1658, Cromwell died of natural causes. But the Thames’ was already flowing with new water. In 1659, Cromwell’s body was dug up and beheaded.

Napoleon Bonaparte, similarly talented at war...and similarly at the service of a new Republican government, whupped the Austrians...the Spanish...the Prussians – even the Egyptians. And then, enchanted by his own genius and enthrall to his own audacity, he decided to take on Russia.

And here it is worth remembering one of the grand masters of military strategy, a man who figured out how to win wars by not fighting battles. In 1812, Barclay de Tolly, a Baltic German, was in command of the Tsar’s largest army. Instead of meeting Bonaparte in battle, he chose to retreat. He scorched the earth in front of the Grande Armee and drew it deeper and deeper into Russian territory. By the time Napoleon realized the fix he was in, it was too late. Russia was easy to get into; it would prove disastrously difficult to get out. He lost around 300,000 of his soldiers — to cold, hunger, disease, and Russian armies.

Whatever Napoleon thought he was doing, his historical role was to return the French aristocracy to power, while he battled rats on St. Helena island. Instead of founding a new Europe based on military victories, his defeat began a long period of unprecedented peace and prosperity.

There are many other examples. Woodrow Wilson grandly claimed to be making the world ‘safe for democracy.’ But largely as a consequence of his meddling, the world became much less safe and much less democratic. Russia, Germany and Italy all turned to Big Man rule….and war.

And now, Donald Trump may believe he is trying to get a better deal for himself and his fellow Americans. Or maybe not.

But, if he is able to complete his term, his historical role, we believe, will be to bring US imperial power down to more modest levels.