How $50 Trillion Could Vanish

The following was prepared for new readers of  Gryphon  Private Research and is intended for investors, savers, and retirees in the United States.

Dear Reader,

You may find this alarming. Or aggravating. Or irritating. Or all of the above. Why?

In our experience, people don't like being told that what they thought was true is wrong. They especially don't like being told they might not make as much money as they thought. Or, that they are not really as rich as they thought they were.

We’ve learned this the hard way over many years.

• In the 1970s we attempted to convince the states to call a Constitutional Convention to add a balanced budget requirement. US debt level then: $700 billion

• In 1986, we sued the Federal government, arguing that saddling the next generation with debt was ‘taxation without representation.’ Debt level: $2.1 trillion

• In 1993 we published a small but influential book called The Plague of the Black Debt. It warned, in precise detail, of the dangers a country faced from becoming addicted to debt. The mainstream media–in the tank for Bill Clinton–hated it. Our warning was ignored and America went down a disastrous debt path (more on that later). Debt level: $4.4 trillion

• In 2003, we published Financial Reckoning Day. It was a warning that the hangover from the dot.com bust would be a soft depression, with lower stock prices and higher inflation. It took the Nasdaq 15 years to make a new high after the crash. Debt level: $6.7 trillion

• In 2006, our book, Empire of Debt, warned about the recklessness of more and more federal borrowing. Debt level: $8.5 trillion

• In 2007, we warned that real estate had become dangerously inflated – thanks to the Fed’s too-low, too-long interest rate policies which encouraged debt in the housing sector. In 2008, Ben Bernanke warned Congress that ‘we may not even have an economy,’ unless it took immediate action to save Wall Street. Debt level: $10 trillion

• About six years later, we made what we think was our most important observation ever–that too much of a good thing (credit!) leads to catastrophe. It was more philosophical than our previous books. But more relevant today than ever. Debt level: $17 trillion

• Debt level today: $37 trillion.

Today, there's no time to write a book. All we can do is raise the alarm...and introduce you to a way of seeing financial markets that can save you from bigger losses...or even result in unexpected gains.

The idea we’d like to show you could be the single most important investment idea of the next ten years. And because so many Americans are at or near a critical time of their financial lives–the timing couldn't be more urgent.

US stocks began 2025 at all-time high valuations. A big correction has begun. But it has much further to go. We can prove it to you below. The risk is so high – in real estate and bonds as well as stocks – that without exaggerating, this may be the most important warning we’ve published to savers, retirees, and investors in forty years.

*** 12 Months of Research  and Actionable Investment Ideas ***

Market Forecasting So Powerful...

"We're willing to put our money where our mouth is - and give you a

full refund if we don't deliver 10 winning recommendations IN A ROW

over the next 12 months."

Talk About Confidence!

The NETWORK System has never been hotter . We just closed out 15

winners in February and another 16 winners in March.

In the eight days from February 25th '05 to March 3rd '05, you

could've grown a $500 investment into $21,569.52!

In the eight days from August 2nd '04 to August 10th '04, you could've

grown a $500 investment into $57,607.24!

This wasn't some random bit of luck. Our predictive system is so

accurate, we produced 16 more winners from November '04 to January

'05.

Since THE NETWORK is red-hot, I'm willing to give you an unconditional

money- back guarantee unlike anything you've ever received before.

THE NETWORK WILL SEND YOU

TEN WINNERS IN A ROW

IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS - OR

YOU'LL RECEIVE A 100% REFUND...

That's Right...

What Have You Done for Me Lately?

The NETWORK has been ON FIRE - nailing 31 winners in two months. See

the full list of winners for yourself...

NETWORK February 2005 Winners

+23% on QQQQ March 36 Calls

+58% on American Express March 50 Calls

+220% on American Express March 55 Calls

+54% on FDO April 32.5 Calls

+24% on Bank of America March 45 Calls

+57% on Stryker January '06 45 Calls

+104% on Patterson Companies July 40 Calls

+38% on Black & Decker March 80 Calls

+90% on Cameco Corp. (recommended 8/31/04)

+90% on Cameco Corp. (recommended 8/31/04)

+90% on Cameco Corp. (recommended 8/31/04)

+16% on Cameco Corp. (recommended 1/31/05)

+29% on DIA March 107 Calls

+35% on QQQQ March 37 Calls

+74% on OSX March 140 Calls

NETWORK March 2005 Winners

+58% on AIG April 65 Puts (AIG PM)

+43% on GYI April 70 Calls (GYI DN)

+46% on DUX April 360 Calls (DUX DL)

+80% on Inco April 40 Calls (N DH)

+123% on Inco April 45 Calls (N DI)

+56% on SCHN May 40 Puts (SQQ QH)

+23% on SKM April 20 Calls (SKM DD)

+108% on Sony July 40 Calls (SNE GH)

+27% on Microsoft April 24.5 Calls (MSQ DR)

+5% on Budweiser June 50 Puts (BUD RJ)

+17% on Office Max May 35 Puts (OMX QG)

+67% on Office Depot June 20 Calls (ODP GD)

+45% on Honda July 25 Puts (HMC SE)

+45% on SPX April 1180 Puts (SPT PP)

+33% on BBBY April 35 Calls (BHQ DG)

+50% on FAST April 55 Puts (FQA PK)

If we don't deliver ten winners in a row over the next 12 months, I'll

refund the full cost of your NETWORK subscription. No hassles or

arguments.

Where else are you going to get that kind of promise?

FOR JUNE ONLY:

Become a NETWORK subscriber for one full year at only $1,250.

If you don't get ten winning recommendations IN A ROW over the next 12

months, you'll qualify for a full 100% refund.

Click below to join THE NETWORK TODAY

31 WINNERS IN TWO MONTHS

How did Network subscribers nail 31 winners in February and March?

From options recommended ONLY after Network analysis signaled that a

stock (or index) hit a significant trend line.

By taking advantage of both UPTRENDS and DOWNTRENDS, you make

consistent returns every month no matter what the market is doing. And

since you only trade breakouts or breakdowns, you don't have to wait

to see big gains.

REMEMBER: The Network collected 31 winners in February and March, 2005

(that's one winner every two days!).

When you start hitting five, six, even seven winners in a row - your

money compounds at an incredible rate. Our latest profit string

could've turned...

$500 into $21,569.52

WHAT MAKES THE NETWORK SO PROFITABLE?

NETWORK Profit String

$500 Grows into $21,569.52

$ 500.00

DUX April 360 Calls

46%

$ 728.07

Budweiser June 50 Puts

5%

$ 766.39

MSFT April 24.5 Calls

27%

$ 975.41

TOL April 90 Calls

-39%

$ 594.76

GYI April 70 Calls

43%

$ 849.66

Inco April 40 Calls

80%

$ 1,529.38

Inco April 45 Calls

123%

$ 3,411.70

AIG April 65 Puts

58%

$ 5,401.85

SKM April 20 Calls

23%

$ 6,662.28

SCHN May 40 Puts

56%

$10,385.32

Sony July 40 Calls

108%

$21,569.52

The NETWORK uses FIVE of the market's most trusted indicators - all

working together - to determine when prices have moved too far away

from their trend lines.

This special combination of Fibonacci grids, Japanese candlestick

charts, Trend line historical data, Head-and-shoulder formations, and

Bollinger bands monitors market prices every day - and alerts you

whenever prices are in for a BIG RISE or a BIG FALL.

These are the same numbers used by big institutions and professional

brokers who rake in millions for their clients.

To profit from THE NETWORK, you'll learn how to trade 'Call' and 'Put'

options on the Dow diamonds (DIA), the Popular NASDAQ QQQ, AND single

equities.

The average amount risked for each NETWORK option is $300.

Network Profit String

$500 Grows into $8,517.18

$ 500.00

DJX Jan 98 Calls

50%

$ 750.00

QQQ Dec 35 Calls

59%

$ 1,191.18

DJX January 98 Calls

67%

$ 1,985.29

SPX March 1150 Calls

57%

$ 3,125.36

QQQ Jan 36 Calls

18%

$ 3,676.90

XAU March 105 Puts

25%

$ 4,578.78

NDX Jan 1400 Calls

23%

$ 5,642.54

SOX Jan 495 Calls

19%

$ 6,689.61

SOX Jan 495 Calls

27%

$ 8,517.18

We shoot for 50% to 100% gains every seven to ten days.

And you'll NEVER lose more than you put in (since our hedging strategy

will teach you how to avoid losing more than 25% of what you put in).

WHY DO SUBSCRIBERS LOVE THE NETWORK?

Because it makes option trading SIMPLE and AFFORDABLE!

YOU CAN START TRADING WITH JUST $500!

The NETWORK "All Star" Profit String

$500 Grows into $57,607.24

$ 500.00

ADSK January 35 Calls

71%

$ 854.17

ADSK January 35 Calls

155%

$ 2,178.13

Autodesk

69%

$ 3,676.68

HE January 25 Calls

27%

$ 4,666.55

Bank of Hawaii

8%

$ 5,024.41

AVP January 42.5 Calls

-19%

$ 4,051.94

Hawaiian Electric

10%

$ 4,460.00

Avon Products

-13%

$ 3,902.11

SYK January 45 Calls

-16%

$ 3,263.58

BOH January 35 Calls

28%

$ 4,172.62

Autodesk

71%

$ 7,144.78

Bank of Hawaii

8%

$ 7,702.85

Hawaiian Electric

11%

$ 8,538.79

Avon Products

-13%

$ 7,462.04

ADSK January 35 Calls

74%

$12,963.72

ADSK January 35 Calls

159%

$33,617.78

SYK January 45 Calls

18%

$39,651.73

BOH January 35 Calls

32%

$52,370.22

HE January 25 Calls

10%

$57,607.24

Already you could've turned...

$500 into $21,569.52

$500 into $8,517.18

$500 into $57,607.24

Are you beginning to see how quickly THE NETWORK can turn a modest

portfolio into incredible wealth?

The NETWORK makes sense because it doesn't take a lot of 'up front'

capital to get started, but that's just one of the many advantages of

the NETWORK System...

Advantage #1: The Network's combination of FIVE of the market's most

trusted indicators means you'll only see recommendations on the big

moves.

Advantage #2: The Network's goal is to take 50% to 100% gains in seven

to ten days - with strictly-limited risk. That means it takes just

days - not months or years - to see high returns.

Advantage #3: The Networks great in any environment - which means you

could profit whether the market's moving UP or DOWN.

Advantage #4: The Network's use of options provides leverage and

balance in your portfolio - and options are a great way to take a more

'hands on' approach to your investments.

'I believe that is a 373% profit in less than 24 hours!! Your insights

and prediction techniques are beyond what is available anywhere else.

Please keep up the pace!!!'

- Network reader Jeff M.

Advantage #5: When the Network System gets hot (like it is now) you

could hit a long string of winners at an incredible rate.

I'M SO CONFIDENT OUR AMAZING WINNING STREAK WILL CONTINUE, I'M WILLING

TO GIVE YOU AN UNCONDITIONAL MONEY- BACK GUARANTEE UNLIKE ANYTHING

YOU'VE EVER RECEIVED BEFORE:

Join THE NETWORK today and you'll get...

TEN WINNING RECOMMENDATIONS IN A ROW,

OR YOUR MONEY BACK

If we don't deliver ten winning recommendations IN A ROW over the next

12 months, simply contact us and we'll refund the full cost of your

subscription.

To sign UP for this guarantee, CLICK BELOW.

THINK THE NETWORK SOUNDS TOO COMPLEX?

IT'S NOT!

WE MAKE IT EASY FOR YOU - BECAUSE EACH ALERT FOLLOWS THE SAME FOUR-STEP PROCESS.

Profit Step # 1: Establish a Trend line

Profit Step #2: Monitor Market Fluctuations

Profit Step #3: Isolate Opportunity

Profit Step #4: Profit Strike!

Profit Step #1: Establish a Trend line

The first thing WaveStrength does is establish a trend line. It

combines all the indicators I told you about earlier... the Japanese

candlestick charts... Head-and-shoulder formations... Fibonacci

grids... and charts out a trend line showing where the market is

likely to go.

Profit Step #2: Monitor Market Fluctuations

Once a trend line is established, The Network begins to monitor market

activity. The Network not only watches daily price action, but also

adds information as the trading day unfolds.

When FDO stock confirmed its new uptrend and established support at

the bottom of its new trend line in early 2005, it was time to

forecast the next up-move in FDO, which lead to Step #3...

Profit Step #3: Isolate Opportunity

This is where things heat up. When The Network spots a confirmed

uptrend at the bottom of its trend line, you know there's a very good

chance the stock will rise to the top of that trend line.

Profit Step #4: Profit Strike!

With a forecast in place, you'll next receive a The Network's profit

alert - telling you exactly how to take advantage of the forecasted

move. This profit alert was issued on January 18th at 11:30 a.m. -

which read...

THE BUY ALERT: 'BUY THE FDO APRIL 32.5 CALLS (FDO DZ) BETWEEN $1.85

AND $2.10 PER CONTRACT.'

As a measure of protection, we also said...

THE PROTECTIVE HEDGE: 'PLACE A PROTECTIVE STOP LOSS AT $1.00 PER CONTRACT.'

Two weeks later, FDO stock went to $2.50 - exactly as we predicted -

and it was time to alert our readers to take profits. With the April

32.5 calls showing a 54% gain, we immediately told Network Traders

to...

'Bought (FDO DZ) at $1.50 on 01-26-05 sold at $2.80 on 02-04-05. WOW!!

What's next??'

- Network reader MWW in Texas

***Testimonial in Text Box

THE SELL ALERT: 'SELL FDO APRIL 32.5 CALLS (FDO DZ) AT MARKET, GOOD

FOR THE DAY.'

To Sum Up...

Network Traders had the opportunity to enter the FDO April 32.5 Calls

on 1/18/05 for $2.05.

Network Traders received instructions to enter a protective stop at

$1.00 to minimize their potential loss.

Network Traders were able to exit the FDO April 32.5 Calls on 2/2/05 for $3.15.

Total Gains: 54% in 14 Days

It's As Simple As That!!

As a Network subscriber, we'll send you an average of 52 to 70

detailed trading recommendations just like this every year.

February '05 Top Winners:

+58% on American Express March 50 Calls

+220% on American Express March 55 Calls

+74% on OSX March 140 Calls

+104% on Patterson Companies July 40 Calls

+90% on Cameco Corp

***10-Winners Guarantee: If we don't deliver ten winners in a row over

the next 12 months, we'll refund you the full cost of your Network

subscription. No hassles or arguments.

You'll Pay Only $1,250 for 12 Months of Network Service!

Remember, you can take advantage of this offer at no risk to you! If

you don't get ten winners in a row, you'll get a full refund...

Guaranteed!

Click Below to Join Now!

March 2005 Top Winners:

+58% on AIG April 65 Puts

+43% on GYI April 70 Calls

+46% on DUX April 360 Calls

+80% on Inco April 40 Calls

+123% on Inco April 45 Calls

+56% on SCHN May 40 Puts

+108% on Sony July 40 Calls

+67% on Office Depot June 20 Calls (*see example below)

+45% on Honda July 25 Puts

+33% on Bed Bath & Beyond

Every day, we monitor hundreds of stocks and indexes. If we uncover a

profit opportunity, we immediately send you a trading recommendation.

All it takes is ten minutes PER DAY to check your email, get our

trading alerts, decide to take part, and place your order.

JOIN THE NETWORK FOR ONE YEAR

PAY ONLY $3,300

Click Below to Join Now!

Remember, if you don't get ten winning recommendations in a row over

the next 12 months, I'll fully refund your $1,250.00. Guaranteed!

The Network's "All Star" Profit String

$500 Grows into $20,789.51

$ 500.00

CECO October 50 Calls

100%

$ 1,000.00

CHKP January 20 Calls

14%

$ 1,136.36

SYMC January 45 Calls

42%

$ 1,611.57

CTXS January 20 Calls

27%

$ 2,052.83

WFMI August 75 Calls

41%

$ 2,891.31

TEVA September 60 Calls

38%

$ 3,985.88

CECO October 50 Calls

51%

$ 6,009.49

CECO October 50 Calls

-15%

$ 5,108.06

CHKP January 20 Calls

53%

$ 7,815.34

SYMC January 45 Calls

44%

$11,254.09

CTXS January 20 Calls

-33%

$ 7,540.24

WFMI August 75 Calls

100%

$15,080.48

TEVA September 60 Calls

38%

$20,789.51

$500 Grows into $8,517.18 (11/17/03 to 12/18/03)

$500 Grows into $3,381.51 (2/06/04 to 2/27/04)

$500 Grows into $20,789.51 (3/22/04 to 4/05/04)

$500 Grows into $57,607.24 (8/02/04 to 8/10/04)

$500 Grows into $2,373.02 (1/31/05 to 2/14/05)

$500 Grows into $21,569.52 (2/25/05 to 3/03/05)

Of course, you know I can't guarantee every recommendation will be a winner.

But...I will guarantee that you'll enjoy ten winners IN A ROW over the

next 12 months - or else I'll refund the full amount of your

subscription fee.

A MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE BASED SOLELY ON PERFORMANCE.

Sign Up Now

You'll pay only $1,250 for one year of THE NETWORK. And remember: This

offer comes at no risk to you!

If we don't deliver ten winning recommendations IN A ROW over the next

12 months, we'll fully refund your $3300.

Click Below

to Join THE NETWORK Today!

To sign up now, click below and follow the secure ordering link.

SUBSCRIBE

Reversion to the Mean

Price movements in the stock market are episodic and cyclical. They are never completely independent from the real economy. And here is the most important part: they are always subject to mean reversion. That is, they always go back to where they ought to be.

Stock market prices are about the future. And maybe the future will be far better than we expect. But prices cannot be independent of the real world. And right now, there is a huge gap between the reality of the American economy…and the market value of American stocks.

The only way that gap closes is the subject of the rest of this short report. It's what we call The Big Loss. We don't have time to write a whole book on how to avoid it. But we don't have to. We’ll show you instead.

Pattern Recognition

Most of what you think about investing and the stock market is wrong. Did you know that 58% of stocks made no money for investors over the last 100 years? Studies show that the average investor does much worse than the market averages. And even if you were to keep your stocks for 100 years, they’d be unlikely to gain a penny of real value.

Markets follow cyclical patterns. Some of those patterns can last up to 73 years, top to top. You can’t afford to be on the wrong side of them. Nor can you afford to take the Big Loss, especially not late in your investment career.

While anything can happen in the short run, over a longer period market events follow patterns. A man, at 90, can occasionally father children; he can appear youthful… and win tennis matches. Still, in a few years, he’ll be dead. That’s a pattern that would be unwise to bet against.

The Pattern of Bear Markets: Structural and Cyclical

In markets and economies…as well as politics…there are patterns too. The table above, provided by our Research Director  in Wyoming, shows that there have been over 25 bear markets in US stock market history. The cyclical ones happen more often and are shorter. The ‘structural ones’--like the one we’re in now—last longer and hit harder.

The most important pattern in markets is what we call the Primary Trend — the deep current that moves events, regardless of what people know, want, or think.

Unfortunately, amid all the noise of constant market movements… and a hurricane-force wind of news and opinion…it can be difficult to make out the Primary Trend. You have to put your ear to the ground…tune out the background commotion as much as possible…and listen hard.

There are predictable patterns — a tree grows to a great height…then it rots. An Empire — even the most powerful one of all time — expands…and then shrinks. Up, down, up, down…round and round — cyclical patterns in the natural world, say, the cycles of the sun or of a four-cycle engine, are regular, and to a certain extent...foreseeable.

But market patterns are different. They are subject to ‘reflexivity.’ It’s a feedback loop where prices affect perceptions...which affect prices...which affect perception. Markets aren’t always efficient or rational. Sometimes they go a little mad.

That is, they react to what is happening…what has happened before…and to what people think is happening. It makes for a lot of uncertainty. And volatility. But that makes sense...

If market tops were as predictable as solar eclipses, for example, they would never happen at all. Investors would anticipate the climax and rush to sell…each afraid that prices would go down before he got out.

Instead, investors are always guessing…always wondering…and always subject to influence. Stocks go from very cheap to very expensive in long-term trends. During the entire 20th century, there were only three of these long-term cycles, as I’ll show you in a moment. But first, a quick word about money.

When the Money Goes, Everything Goes

Today’s money—the paper kind—loses value fast. We look at it in terms of gold. At the start of 1915, the 30 Dow Jones Industrials stocks (a good stand-in for quality stocks) were worth 2.65 ounces of gold. That ratio rose to over 18 as the first peak of the century was reached in August 1929. Then began the downdraft, ending in early 1933 with the Dow worth just 1.92 ounces. That was the first bottom-to-top-to-bottom cycle.

The next began in 1933. It continued to another top in the Dow stocks during the first week of 1966. The Dow crested at 28 ounces of gold. Thereafter, prices fell again and came to rest 14 years later (in January 1980) at 1.29 ounces of gold to the Dow. That was the second cycle.

The third began in 1982 with the Dow rising to a remarkable 42 ounces by the end of the century. And today, a quarter century on, the relationship between real prices (in gold) and real value (Dow companies producing useful products and services) is as strong as ever. Please look at the long-term Dow/Gold chart below.

In 1915, you could have bought 2.65 ounces of gold for the price of the 30 Dow stocks. That ratio followed the up-and-down pattern we previously discussed… from a low under 2 to a high over 40. But when stocks were very cheap in terms of gold, they tended to become less cheap going forward. If they were expensive, the opposite happened.

Today, after more than a century of up-and-down movement, the ratio is at 11.1. Just a few months ago it was around 15, about the same as September of 1929. From then to today, investors in the Dow made only dividends and not a penny of capital gain. The value of America’s finest industries — compared to the value of real money — went nowhere.

In GDP terms, the gravity of the economy keeps stock prices in its orbit. In the boom of the 1960s, the Dow was worth about 1.2 times GDP, or 120%. To put that in perspective, the ‘mean’ (the long-term average) for the stocks-to-GDP ratio is about 82%. Anything higher, stocks are overvalued. Much higher, a bubble.

If you knew that the stock market went up and down…in long cycles lasting a decade or more …and you knew that over time you couldn’t expect to make any capital gains from your stocks…and that the only way to make progress was to trade in and out, buying when they were cheap and selling when they became expensive…wouldn’t you try to put this insight to work?

Market statistics show us that being in the right place at the right time is the key to big gains. To put it another way, ‘allocation’ is much more important than stock selection — or in Wall Street speak, beta is more important than alpha. The real question is how much of your wealth to have allocated to stocks at any given time.

We’ve developed a Dow/Gold trading system to help our readers. If you’d invested $100 in the Dow stocks starting on January 1, 1913, today you’d have $51,338 or $4,897,400 with dividends reinvested. But if you’d followed our Dow/Gold trade — with only five trades in the last century not including the initial investment — you’d have an account worth $56 million today.

Details of the performance of this trade are updated in Investment Director Tom Dyson's Gold Report, which is available (with other Research Reports and Private Briefings) to paying subscribers. Which brings me back to the market doay.

The Big Loss

The surprising goal of the Dow/Gold trading system is not to make money. It’s to avoid the Big Loss. Right now, the risk of the Big Loss in US stocks, the US dollar, and US bonds, has never been greater. We show this each day in our regular letters to readers.

If you get hit by a car…or hit by the market…the result is the same – you're out of the game. Taking the Big Loss is the worst thing that can happen to you, because you can no longer hope for any gains.

It’s important to realize that just as it is hard to identify the Primary Trend, it is even harder to identify the investments that will be the big winners. Even if you are one of the best investors in the country, you win some, you lose some.

Overall, if you’re in tune with the Primary Trend, you can hope for growth. But only if you are still in the game…only if you have avoided the Big Loss. That’s why we make avoiding the Big Loss our number one concern. Our whole strategy is built around staying in Maximum Safety Mode to avoid this loss. Why?

It is okay to lose money when you are young. It is part of the learning process. But if you work all your life to accumulate a nest egg you can't afford a wipeout. By then you will be in your 50s or 60s. You won't have time to recover.

You avoid the Big Loss by respecting the discipline of the Dow/Gold trade. Investments go up and down. When they are up, we don't necessarily have any idea where they will go next, but we know that they now carry the risk of a big loss. The more expensive they are…the more they can lose.

In short, we don't try to predict the stock market's next move. We simply pull out of investments when the risk of loss is elevated. Then, after stocks sell-off, the risk is reduced and we buy back in. The current state of our asset allocation strategy--between cash, stocks, precious metals, and cryptos--is published once a month in our Monthly Strategy Report (the May report, prepared by our Investment Director Tom Dyson, is due out in 10 days).

The Golden Rule