Chasing the Dragon with Odd Lots

I

mean if we've got any banking analysts

listen to this can you do your job like

rather than blowing smoke up the the CEO

can you say Hey listen can you tell me

what is the size of your unmarked

treasury portfolio what is the loss of

it what are you doing what have you

shifted the duration can you just talk

to the street about it no one

asks I got 15 years of this blessed

thing we call speculation because my

first calendar year I made 50% I'm not

gloring what I'm meaning by that is the

the the the failure rate in hedge funds

it's like a restaurant most restaurants

fail yeah and and the return to the

Survivor is really high um and I gotens

there was times I didn't think I was

going to make it but I was absurdly long

gold and again if you're like a wannabe

new hedge fund manager like I got to

tell you it's like you ain't going to

make it in your first year if you're not

making money and you ain't going to make

it if you're like making six or s% and

trying to tell people your sharp ratio

is really good you're going to make it

if you find like um and you concentrate

and you take leverage in a rising asset

class and it's volatile and you you

chase the

dragon I mean I've been invested for

like 35 years and I'm saying to you

China going from the size of turkey to

Europe and the the Avalanche of money

and liquidity is why every asset price

in America is high and I think we're

we're now at the I call it the OB

Obayashi Maru moment if you remember

from Star Trek when it's a no win it's a

no win scenario there's just no wi

because we got 5 a half% rates in the US

we got a currency which is rising and

the rest of the world's like I'm out of

here I'm checking out and and so the

Florida is coming more and more into the

US now the fed's sitting there and it's

listening to it's like the bank of

England in 1927 when they were like

overvalued on the gold stand and like

we're at four and I'm like we're going

to be overthrown by the Communists

unless we can bring interest rates down

and so he went to the fed and he said

the only way we can bring rat stone is

if you cut remember Benjamin strong the

coup D whiskey and he he takes a cut and

what happened the US Stock Market like

went to the Moon it bred instability so

the big drama this year is the Koreans

the Japanese and I think the Chinese are

saying you got to you actually got to

subjugate the domestic strength of the

US economy and you got to bail us out

now if the fed that's a no win If the

Fed does that like buy 10,000 call

strikes on the S&P

what China does it's very good at

creating GDP but not wealth so look at

the stock market right the stock

market's flat flat for 25 years and the

currencies is weakening and that's the

problem and so what happens is with

there a savings model all of it all of

it and again to maintain those

advantages they have to push all of

their Capital into risk-free us

treasuries okay and unfortunately only

until the last 2 three years the us we

were fiscally conservative we should

have been running huge deficits but oh

no you can't do that we should have been

running huge deficits and the Chinese

would have funded the roll out of the

best like fast trains the best education

the best health care the best cities you

know ships that don't crash into Bridges

and bring it all tumbling down and

instead whenever we did something we did

a stupid tax

cut so you were saying again your

anxiety about the Chinese and they're

going to overtake us they took the wrong

bet right cuz I was talking to someone

like but what about the Chinese

thousands upon thousands of phds I'm

like yeah like I'm sorry again forgive

me but if you just completed a PhD oh my

God you just chose the wrong moment in

history why because we got AI we got the

AI and the PHD Thing by and large is the

left hemisphere of your brain if you're

listening to this now the future and if

you want to be rewarded again you got to

be kind of like an asset capitalist is

right hand side of the brain all that

PhD thing has been mid redundant

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