A Dying Man Will Try Any Medicine

Boy, oh boy are things… um… interesting. I almost miss the days of green-haired teenage girls with hairy armpits gluing themselves to the road to make the weather better.

Now we have craziness at the international trade level. At its core, it’s all politics.

The now dead George Carlin had a skit where he told us why he doesn’t vote. To quote:

"I don’t vote. Two reasons I don’t vote. First of all, it’s meaningless. This country was bought and sold and paid for a long time ago. The isht they shuffle around every four years… doesn’t mean a f* thing.

And secondly, I don’t vote because I believe if you vote, you have no right to complain. If you vote, and you elect dishonest incompetent people and they get into office and screw everything up, well… you are responsible for what they have done."

We’ve had some conversations with clients who are questioning their own voting after the trade war kicked off. The problem with taking a position for or against any politician is that probability is not in our favour. We’re bound to be disappointed because the vast majority of these podium donuts aren’t there for our benefit. Sure, some of the things they may espouse are to our benefit, but then others aren’t. What to do?

Well, I think it’s best not to get caught up in the mental gymnastics of it all and simply keep reviewing the actions and data and then making decisions for ourselves accordingly.

As far as the tariffs go, at first glance they make no sense. The orange man said they are "reciprocal," but any idiot with two thumbs and an interwebs connection can quickly do the math and determine this is hogwash. What they are is quite simple — they are based on other countries’ trade surplus with the US.

The supposition around "reciprocal" came unglued as soon as they tried to figure out why on God’s green earth there were tariffs on an uninhabited island that has only penguins. Wait… what!? Anyone then following their nose saw that the narrative fell apart faster than logic at a climate change gathering.

What this amounts to is an attempt to restructure creditors. It’s what you do in bankruptcy. Trump appears now to be bringing his experience in chapter 11 proceedings onto the global stage.

This is a big deal! From where we sit, there are four big forces through history that drive everything, all of these are interconnected and in many instances causal to each other:

1. The monetary and credit cycle where nations get into a sovereign debt problem, which needs to be dealt with.

2. Domestic conflict, typically beginning as political disagreement, but where disagreement isn’t resolved by discourse.

3. A rising power challenging the existing power and causing international conflict.

4. Technological changes that assist in disrupting the status quo.

So the first changes the monetary order. The second changes the political order. And the third changes the international order, while the fourth assists in ushering it in.How does this all play out?Well, let’s start with what we’ve been watching recently. No, not the Chinese laughing at bringing manufacturing back to the US…

Confucius philosophy says:

"If you want to govern a country, you must first govern your family. If you want to govern your family, you must first govern yourself."

The issue here isn’t about "fair trade." It is about survival, though. Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis dropped some hard truths about the real reason behind the US- China trade war.

1. The US doesn’t fear China because of "cheap labor" or "IP theft." What it truly fears is China’s capacity to undermine the US-led global financial order — the very system that allows America to print dollars and buy the world.

2. Wall Street’s aging financial architecture is losing its grip. It can’t control crypto flows. It can’t keep up with new financial ecosystems. China — with its digital yuan, vast industrial base, and rising global influence — is the first real threat to this system.

3. Trump’s "reciprocal tariffs" were never about balancing trade. They were a desperate attempt to slow down China’s rise and protect the dollar system from collapse. Because if China succeeds, the US loses its magic weapon: monetary dominance. See point 2 above.

4. Today, Trump is laser-focused on America’s financial core with the Treasury bond market (America’s lifeline) and the stock market (America’s wallet). Both are fragile. And any external pressure could trigger a chain reaction.

5. The US is now panicking over who’s selling off US Treasuries. China? Japan? Others? Trump reportedly wants to punish any surplus country that dumps Treasuries — with tariffs, of course. This is not about trade. It’s about a dying empire trying to stop the bleeding.

6. In short, America is no longer confident in its own financial fortress. And China is no longer playing by the old rules. This isn’t just a trade war — it’s a war for the future of global finance.

Further to this point, the famous Ben Rickert (for those who’ve watched The Big Short) highlighted this issue:

"For the first time ever, China’s CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) surpassed SWIFT in single-day transaction volume. A red banner flashed across Bank of China’s HQ at 1:30AM on April 16, 2025.

CIPS processed a jaw-dropping ¥12.8 trillion RMB in just one day—roughly $1.76 trillion USD. That volume, if verified, overtakes the greenback-dominated SWIFT system in sheer daily cross-border throughput.

No fireworks, no Western headlines. Just one quiet early morning in Beijing where the dollar’s crown slipped. The world’s financial plumbing just got a reroute—through China."

This of course is known to those who DON’T rely solely on Western propaganda media.

Now, consider the US bond market.

The problem is that the US can’t just do what Milei is doing. The debt is too large, and because US treasuries are embedded in the very fabric of global financial markets, paying down that debt has ramifications that Milei simply doesn’t have to contend with.

To highlight the issue: consider that the most significant effort to cut government spending (DOGE) is set to yield $50 billion in annual savings. Awesome… until you realise that this is on the back of a $7.5 trillion budget. They haven’t even managed to cut 0.75% of spending. Furthermore, the US has to borrow over 10% of GDP annually to keep the lights on.

Now they’re weaponizing the dollar and trade in a desperate attempt to "Make America Great Again." The rest of the world is preparing.

Gold has a long way to go. That being said, it is looking a bit frothy right now, so if you’re the sort that will freak out if you see a decent pullback in a bull market (20-30%), you may want to check yourself on going "all in" here. On the other hand, it’s a bull market, and if — like us — your timeframe runs into the years, then you’re simply ensuring your allocation is adequate and leaving the rest to the market gods.

The old adage is worth considering — never sell a bull market and never buy a bear market. Bonds are in a bear market… and gold is in a bull market.

Editor’s Note: We are living through a rare and pivotal moment in financial history — a time when the old order is unraveling, and a new one is being born. The geopolitical chessboard is shifting, trade is being weaponized, and the dollar's dominance is quietly being challenged in real time. This isn’t business as usual. It’s a systemic clash.

If you’re trying to make sense of how to invest amid collapsing narratives, geopolitical chaos, and the breakdown of the global financial order, this is the moment to dig deeper.