Financial sector is bloated
um I just want to have you to have a
look at this this graph to frame it it's
UK private debt since 1880 you can see
what happens around the Great Depression
and then suddenly Thatcher comes the
Power private debt takes off F
financial sector a bloated or a dominant
financial sector its effect in your view
on the real economy first of all it's
interesting that um the national income
accountants who think a lot about the
overall economy how to measure it and
how to you know structure the dat they
actually have been struggling for
decades with the question what to do
with the financial sector why because
GDP is actually created by national
income accounting by adding up value
added activities and that's where the
financial sector has a problem what is
the value added um and it's it's been so
difficult that essentially the um
National accounting statistic have to
make up a fictional value and just add
it on to GDP and say okay that's we can
say that maybe is is what the financial
sector is doing because essentially
there is no value added there's value
extracted and so really you need to
subtract it from GDP has the finance
sector the fire sector has it become a
cost center because is is the as you
know is there a sweet spot where it's
actually serving Humanity Society and
facilitating business and when it
becomes a profit generator in and of
itself it becomes detrimental to The
Wider to The Wider World start with you
well exactly um even the mainstream
textbooks in finance Banking and macrom
monetary economics will will show Banks
as Financial intermediaries now there's
there's a problem with that it's clear
there is a high price that we're paying
for this what should be a humble
intermediation service that's being
performed and the salaries that are
being paid you know famously very
high which is very strange if they're
just intermediaries Lally where does
that end up I think there's a structural
problem that is the concentration of the
banking sector so in the UK five banks
account for 90% of
deposits which is one of the most
concentrated banking systems in the
world in Germany um those High Street
Banks account for 12% of deposits and
70% of deposits are accounted for by
1,500 local not for-profit Community
Banks there is a general tendency when
an organization gets large and larger
and larger and gets very big um
essentially decisions are made without
accountability and The Temptations of
power strike Lord Acton famously put it
this way you know power corrupts and
absolute power corrupts
absolutely so when you have very large
Banks and only five of them dominating
the economy and through the political
mechanism and the already financial
sector centered political system and
political infrastructure you know the
city of London having a person in
Parliament that is not elected the
remembrance and in know all these rights
of this square mile as a sovereign state
you know all these things and the queen
needs permission to go there right
exactly and so what you will get is
large Banks only wanting to deal with
large customers in order to do large
deals and that's also where you get the
large bonuses we've done a study on the
US which has the biggest banking sector
in the world over 15,000 Banks of all
sizes and shapes the very large Banks
deal with the very large customers give
very large loans the medium-sized banks
give medium-sized loans who is lending
to small firms it is only the small
Banks now the UK doesn't have those so
the structure has become too
concentrated and what is badly needed in
the UK is decentralization one has to
break up the the financial sector and um
have much smaller units because small
Banks Community Banks are locally
accountable you can't suddenly do a
crazy project or corrup you know big
corruption because people see what
you're doing but I think you'd argue for
decentralized banking system wouldn't
you even though you're a city devote
without a doubt but because it's anti
Richard Like Richard to comment on this
because I am and as I'm sure Richard is
but we've had our Metro Banks we've had
our older malls we've had our one
savings Challenger Banks all the
Challenger Challenger Bank we've had
handles bank or handles bank and done a
fantastic job but it's still tiny
exactly now they will stay tiny the ones
um that are UK Challenger Banks and that
are profit oriented and you you know why
cuz the moment they get a bit bigger
yeah they will be bought up and they
will disappear this is exactly what
happened over the last 100 years Richard
Banks create money
when you think about inequality
inequality in the UK and it's a Hot
Topic and you think about as you'd like
the banking sector to be uh
decentralized flatter structure more
resilient how do you begin to uh talk to
the public or the political class about
achieving those goals essentially you
know if if um we want to produce
something we need funding so there was a
role for Bank s in almost everything
that's happening in the economy but what
exactly is that role I just quickly I'd
like to reflect on that banks are being
thought of as intermediaries but this is
not really what's happening Banks what
are they then the creators of the money
supply so you're firmly of the view that
Banks create money out of th a yes well
I I produced the first empirical studies
to prove that um in the 5,000 year
history of banking banks are thought of
as uh deposit taking institutions that
lent money the legal reality it is Banks
don't take deposits and Banks don't lend
money so what is a deposit a deposit is
not actually a deposit it's not a
bailment it's not held in custody U at
law the word deposit is meaningless the
Law Courts and various judgments have
made very clear if you give your money
to a bank even though it's called a
deposit this money is simply a loan to
the bank that's true yeah so there is no
such thing as deposit
you name then so Banks borrow from the
public
okay so that much we've established what
about lending surely they're lending
money um no they don't Banks don't lend
money Banks again at law it's very clear
they're in the business of purchasing
Securities that's it so you say okay
don't you know confuse me with all that
legal E I want a loan I want a loan y
fine here's the loan contract here's the
offer letter and you sign at law it's
very clear you have issued a security
namely a PR Miss note and the bank is
going to purchase that that's what's
happening at put it in layman's terms
what does that mean it means that um
what the bank is doing is very different
from what it presents to the public that
it's doing how does this fit together so
you say fine the bank purchases my
promissary note but how do I get my
money I want you know it's a lo I want
Grand don't care about the details I
want the money the bank will say well
you'll find it in your account with us
that would be technically correct if
they say will transfer it to your
account that's wrong because no money is
transferred at all it's already from
anywhere inside the bank or outside the
bank why because what we call a deposit
is simply the bank's record of its debt
to the public now it also owes you money
and its record of the money it owes you
is what you think you're getting as
money and that's all it is and that is
how the banks create the money supply
the money supply consists to 97% of Bank
deposits and these are created out of
nothing by Banks when they lend because
they invent fictitious customer deposits
why they simply restate slightly
incorrectly in accounting terms what is
an accounts payable liability arising
from the loan contract having purchased
your promissary note as a customer
deposit but nobody has deposited any
money I wonder how the FCA deals with
this because in the financial sector
you're supposed to not mislead your
customers um anyway I I don't have the
so so the banks create the money supply
by inventing these claims on themselves
the you know the fictitious deposits
that can be actually positive for the
economy as long as this money creation
is in line with the creation of new
goods and services uh implementation of
new technologies and therefore adding
value and adding value in the economy is
funded by this money creation if that
happens and we're talking about um
business investment productive loans
productive Bank credit you will have no
inflation
these loans can also be serviced and
repaid you have a stable economy without
problems and with low inequality and so
countries that achieved this that the
banks L mainly for productive purposes
whether it's Germany in much of its 200
year history or um in the last century
the East Asian economies where Bank
credit was largely for productive
purposes then you're fine but there's
two more cases I quickly need to point
them out because that's the contract
just just just clarify that that
inequality is is significantly lower
lower inflation is low yes
and the real economy booming yes that's
when Bank credit creation is focused on
um productive lending for productive
purposes as opposed to speculation and
and asset price as opposed to there's
two other types if banks create credit
for consumption it's obviously what's
going to happen you suddenly have more
money create created and more demand for
goods but it's the same amount of goods
and services so you're creating Consumer
Price inflation that's well understood
and and central banks are watching that
a little bit but what what's less well
understood is and what's the biggest in
UK um it's probably more than 70% of all
lending um actually way more than that
um is Bank credit creation so money
creation for financial transactions
for asset transactions for purchasing
ownership rights now then you have a
problem why because you're creating new
money but you're not creating new goods
and services you simply they're constant
aren't they you're giving somebody new
purchasing power over existing assets
and therefore you must push up asset
prices so this you can you can draw a
Banks create inequality
chart where you show you know asset
prices land prices property prices in
the UK and it will match very closely as
as I've shown in in Japan and other
countries and that also creates the
inequality when the the banking sector
has focused too much on unproductive
lending and the UK is dominant it
strikes me that what you're telling me
and tell me I'm wrong is that lending in
order to get round this deposit stroke
loan situation needs to be categorized
you're right exactly is that right
that's right um we need to look at where
the money is going that makes a whole
world difference so if money is is Bank
credit is extended for productive
purposes you're fine you get a good
economy no inflation and financial
stability and also you don't have this
inequality problem and do you think
there should be different Capital ratios
towards each Capital the whole Basel
Capital approach doesn't work why
because it's it's premised on the idea
that banks are just Financial
intermediaries but they're not they're
money creators we need Bank regulation
that recognizes reality of how the banks
actually operate so what you're saying
this is a regulation problem clearly yes
it's a regulation problem that's right
we need a different regulation and the
only regulation that actually has
succeeded in in history and we have good
data for the 20th century in particular
in preventing asset Bubbles and banking
crisis which are all driven by this bank
credit for financial transaction you
leads to this asset boom and it's it's a
game of musical chairs you know you have
to play it it's rational to play it
while the music is playing which is how
asset prices are driven by ever more Bank
credit for financial transactions the
moment it stops asset prizes fall you
get the first bankruptcies Banks get
risk revers the whole thing goes into
reverse and Banks go bust but you can
avoid this and the only regulation that
has succeeded in avoiding this is
guidance of bank credit simple rules um
the simplest form of bank credit
guidance is to Simply ban Bank credit
for um Financial transactions it doesn't
mean Financial transactions are banned
no let the speculated speculate and let
them even borrow money but not from
banks that would make a whole world of
difference who do they borrow it from
well they can issue bonds or you know
borrow in the markets whatever they want
but they shouldn't get access to the
public privilege of money creation you
see I you mean and that creates the
problem that creates the boom Cycles but
in some countries they've succeed eded
in preventing this asset inflation which
ones such as Germany without even credit
guidance by having a banking structure
banking system that's dominated by banks
that don't want to do this financial
speculation in the first place these are
the Community Banks so Germany with 70%
of Bank call the lers Banks being no not
the L Banks the smaller ones the 1,500
FKS bank and R Eisen Bank they're
actually the main banks in Germany
there's so many of them each is small
and they lend mainly for productive
purposes to small and medium sized
Enterprises the middle stun which has
been the backbone of German economic
success for the last 200 years despite
Wars and disasters has only been
successful because they also have to
have local small Banks funding them all
the way through that doesn't exist in
the UK and that's been why the small and
medium-sized Enterprise sector always
has has had a problem in the UK so we're
stuck with speculation and horrific
property porn renovation shows well the
solution is of course to create these
small Banks we need to create small
Banks they're the natural lenders to
small firms the public wants stable
growth none of those boom bust cycle
banking crisis public money used to
bailout Banks people don't want that in
Germany these Community Banks it's very
because they've never used public money
in these 200 years not a single one has
ever been bailed out with public money
and no depositor has lost any money
although Richard your argument is
complex principles are terribly simple
it is very simple and although you
although you're a little defeatist I'm
not maybe I'm defeatist but but I like
it but it's just the idea of how can I
put it getting getting through the
regulatory they are so reluctant but
that's why hard work that's why we
that's why we got you in we're going to
we're going to have
you I think I have to say this has been
brilliantly explained has the UK got a
finance C is it a trick question cuz the
UK doesn't have Finance the city of
London has and is not part of the UK
good
answer good answer it's International
he's right the city of London is outside
the United Kingdom do you know that it's
it's really shocking and therefore it's
also not part of the EU which explains
the although it couldn't be part of the
EU because you have to have Democratic
elections and the city of London doesn't
right it's it's the banks that have the
votes right right per Offa you know how
you How do you start unpicking this
puzzle I never knew that's very useful
piece of information it's not part of
pretty dangerous piece of information
and it's not part of the UK because the
queen is not allowed to enter without
permission she's not the Sovereign
therefore it's not part of the UK you
know of course that's since you know
1688 I have to make a not since the
corent invasion
Comments