Top Prediction for 2025

 Looking at the intersection of finance, economics, politics, and culture, what is your most significant prediction for 2025?

What major event or trend should people prepare for that most are currently overlooking?

 The trends that appeared, seemingly against all odds, in 2024 are going to accelerate.

The climate changed with the election of Trump. That was emblematic, but similar things are happening in other countries. The conservative/libertarian AfD will likely oust the current German government, which resembles that of the old East Germany. Castro’s son will be dethroned in Canada. And almost everywhere, even the media, has come to recognize that the Milei revolution in Argentina is succeeding.

It’s becoming apparent that progressivism and wokeism are morbid. White males are less afraid of committing thought crimes, being canceled, or being labeled racist or sexist. DEI, ESG, and Woke values are retreating. These trends will grow, even while leftists, statists, and socialists pull out all the stops to resist them.

It’s funny that the WEF and their ilk still talk about 2030 as being a magic year because the change in the trend that started in 2024 runs counter to everything that the WEF and the progressives were aiming for in 2030.

I’m surprised—and very pleased—to see what looks like a cultural sea change. But we’re still on the cusp of a giant financial crisis. If the markets melt down, the kaleidoscope could reset mass psychology radically. The fundamentals remain very shaky. The climate and CO2 hysterias are ingrained in the public psyche. And there’s an excellent chance the usual suspects will try to ramp up another vaccine hysteria. A bird flu seems to be on the dance card for 2025.

 You’ve spoken about societal decline in the past. Do you see any path toward reversing this trend in 2025, or is societal breakdown inevitable?

What do you think happens next?

 Trends in motion tend to stay in motion until they reach a crisis and a new trend emerges.

Fortunately, technology continues to advance at an accelerating rate, and that’s crucial. Throughout history, innovation has changed the nature of life much more than politics, personalities, or even war.

Roughly five thousand years of recorded history show the trend is up, exponentially. That’s why I’m essentially an optimist. But one who recognizes that humanity suffers from occasional bouts of evil and stupidity. Time is on humanity’s side, although that can be an academic observation from the point of view of your own short lifetime.

On the pessimistic side, about 50% of the population in Western societies have been transformed into parasites, collecting much more from the government than they contribute to society. That’s a big deal because almost all progress has come from the West.

Europeans, especially, have become ingrained with bad habits and values. We’re undergoing another stage of the Industrial Revolution that started about the year 1800. It’s destroying lots of old jobs—mostly a good riddance—which will upset the people whose rice bowls are broken. But things will be fine, as long as enough of the middle class survives. The plebs and the "elite" will survive (because they’re basically parasites), but the middle class is the source of production and vitality in any modern society.

Unfortunately, society has retrogressed over the last few generations. But perhaps a counterrevolution has started. The remaining middle class wants to eliminate the parasites. I’d like to believe that the current technological expansion will aid in that and lead to another boom—not just a financial boom, but an economic boom featuring vastly more production at vastly lower costs.

In the short term, however, the Greater Depression will cause the average guy’s standard of living to drop. That’s the best case, even if society stops supporting parasites. Why? Because capital will be reallocated away from consumption and back to rebuilding wealth.

The worst case is that the world continues to party on, with borrowed money. Then, we could have a hyperinflationary depression.

Even though I think the Greater Depression will persist at least over the next decade, the long-term uptrend—which has been going on since the end of the last Ice Age—will continue and hopefully accelerate radically.

So what happens next?

The elite and the parasites still control the State, and that’s critical. The State still has legitimacy, but it’s not part of the cosmic firmament. Though it’s losing its legitimacy, people still view the institution the way children view their parents. Even though those who control the apparatus of the State act more like predators than parents. They will use it to their personal advantage.

I expect promiscuous spending will continue under Trump, notwithstanding the best efforts of Elon, Vivek, and DOGE. That’s because if they don’t keep spending and creating money, the whole pyramid of debt that’s been built up over many decades will come crashing down.

The US dollar, therefore, will continue being inflated. But at the same time, if the Trump administration deregulates radically, efficiency in manufacturing and production will improve radically. Despite lots more money being created, costs and retail prices could drop enough to disguise the effects of inflation.

Despite the positive effects of deregulation, there will be lots of unemployed people as distortions in the economy are liquidated. The good news is that the economy, which is to say the amount of real wealth being created, will start improving, even while the financial situation—stock and bond prices—gets ugly. Rapid change presents lots of paradox.