Strange Days...and the Big Gain

An old Irish joke goes: "How do I get to Dublin?" The local replies, "Well, you don't want to start from here. You can't get there from here."

We begin with where we are. USA Today:

US stocks end up, with S&P 500 at record. 

But the S&P is not the only thing hitting records. Fartcoin, Butthole coin, Microstrategy, FartStrategy, $Trump, $Melania, $Lorenzo…even dead men are launching new wealth defying cryptos. John McAfee, who committed suicide three years ago, on X yesterday:

"I'm back with AIntivirus. An AI version of myself," @officialmcafee's post reads.  "You didn't think I would miss this cycle did you?"

Whatever else can be said about where we are... it’s a pretty strange place.

Our first priority is to avoid the Big Loss. If we can keep our wealth more or less intact, we can benefit from time, compounding, luck, our own wisdom... increasing (or decreasing!) with age, and occasionally, good research.

That brings us to our second priority. Going in the opposite direction from the Big Loss is the Big Gain. Today, we wonder where it is. We don’t think the Trump Team can get from where we are to where we want to go…but we don’t doubt that there’s money to be made somewhere.Leaders don’t make as much difference as most people think. The path of events is determined by deeper historical forces — the ‘primary trend’ in markets... and in politics. don’t make as much difference as most people think. The path of events is determined by deeper historical forces — the ‘primary trend’ in markets... and in politics.

Leaders don’t make as much difference as most people think. The path of events is determined by deeper historical forces — the ‘primary trend’ in markets... and in politics.Leaders don’t make as much difference as most people think. The path of events is determined by deeper historical forces — the ‘primary trend’ in markets... and in politics.